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China Eyes Indo-Pacific as Russia Invades Ukraine

Australian intelligence chief Andrew Shearer says China’s President may be planning to dominate the Indo-Pacific region and use it as a base to overtake the US as the world’s leading power

Russian President Vladimir Putin talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing
Xi is looking to expand Chinese purchases of Russian oil and Chinese investment in Russian infrastructure. Photo: Reuters


A “troubling new strategic convergence” between Beijing and Moscow has developed and the risk of “major power conflict” had grown since Russia invaded Ukraine, Australia’s intelligence chief said on Wednesday.

Andrew Shearer, director-general of the Office of National Intelligence, said Chinese leader Xi Jinping appears to be planning to dominate the Indo-Pacific region and use it as a base to overtake the US as the world’s leading power.

The comments reinforce warnings that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has met near-universal condemnation by the West, may spread into a regional or global conflict.

This week Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison called on liberal democracies to stop an “arc of autocracy” reshaping the world.

“We’re going to have to work much harder to maintain the liberal quality of the rules-based order in Europe and here in the Indo-Pacific region,” Shearer said at a conference hosted by The Australian Financial Review.

“We see a leader who’s really battening down and hardening his country for this struggle to overtake the United States as the world’s leading power,” he added, referring to Xi.



Primacy in the Indo-Pacific

“The base camp … is to establish primacy in the Indo-Pacific region,” said Shearer, adding the geopolitical threat would centre around technology, including use of cyber attacks.

He said Australia must bolster its cyber defences without closing itself to trade and information-sharing.

“We need a growing, open economy so we can fund the increases in defence spending that the government’s committed to, but this can’t be a zero sum trade-off between economics and security,” he said.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which it has called a “special operation”, Australian intelligence professionals considered that “a major power conflict unfortunately is becoming a less remote prospect than it was previously”, Shearer said.

He echoed many Western commentators by saying he was surprised by the effectiveness of Ukraine’s resistance to Russian forces. But he foreshadowed a “brutal, bloody couple of weeks” since Russian leader Vladimir Putin had “everything at stake now (and) it’s hard to see an elegant, or inelegant, dismount”.

The Kremlin describes its actions as a “special operation” to disarm Ukraine and unseat leaders it calls neo-Nazis. Ukraine and Western allies call this a baseless pretext for a war of choice that has raised fears of wider conflict in Europe.


  • Reuters with additional editing by Sean OMeara





China Slams Taiwan Content in US Indo-Pacific Plan – Xinhua


Biden Meets Cautious Asia-Pacific Allies Over Ukraine


US Readies Economic Strategy to Counter China – WSJ


US Warns Chinese Firms Not to Evade Sanctions – NY Times


Sean O'Meara

Sean O'Meara is an Editor at Asia Financial. He has been a newspaper man for more than 30 years, working at local, regional and national titles in the UK as a writer, sub-editor, page designer and print editor. A football, cricket and rugby fan, he has a particular interest in sports finance.


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