China Touting Temporary Trade Agreement With US as a Victory

China’s state media outlets have hailed the outcome of trade talks with the US in Geneva as a triumph, both for their negotiators and the country’s defiant posture and tough responses to President Trump’s tariff blitz.

Analysts have said the 90-day tariff pause agreed with US officials in Switzerland on the weekend was a positive result that exceeded many people’s expectations.

An account on X (formerly Twitter) linked to CCTV, China’s national broadcaster, said: “China’s firm countermeasures and resolute stance have been highly effective,” adding that “China gets nearly all #tariffs off for doing very little other than agreeing to talk.”

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CNBC noted that “Chinese users are touting the deal” on social media, with the #USChinaSuspending24%TariffsWithin90Days” hashtag, reportedly notching more than 420 million views on Weibo.

But with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer praising the Chinese as “tough negotiators” after the two sides agreed to wind back the great bulk of tariffs each had imposed, the response from Beijing is hardly surprising.

Unlike their President, the US officials were restrained. There were no boastful remarks about Beijing agreeing to ditch countermeasures imposed days after Trump announced his ‘reciprocal tariffs’ last month, such as its ban on rare earth exports and the return of Boeing jets being purchased by Chinese airlines.

Small parcels tariff cut in half

Indeed, the US even gave ground on its de minimus tariff on small parcels sent from China, which have long been viewed as a loophole that allowed fentanyl to be sent directly into the US. That was slashed from 120% to 54%, the White House confirmed on Monday.

A $100 flat fee will also apply to packages valued at less than $800 from May 14, down from a $200 fee that was due to take effect in June.

Observers say such concessions may have been padded into initial tariff hikes. And many believe the summit in Geneva is just the start of what could be a long, drawn-out process of negotiation and that both sides are keen to cool tensions and dial down the “trade war” to a far less emotive “trade dispute”.

In an editorial on Tuesday, the Global Times, China’s nationalistic tabloid, likened the outcome, with the US and Beijing both suspending a 24% tariff, as “timely rain.”

It said the trade deal “aligns with the expectations of producers and consumers in both countries,” and showed that “the US now has a deeper understanding of the correct way to deal with China.”

Companies shipping goods across the Pacific to the US have said they expect a “dramatic uptick in container traffic over the coming weeks,” according to a report by the South China Morning, which quoted analysts as saying businesses were rushing to front-load shipments to take advantage of a temporary reduction in US and Chinese tariffs.

US trade negotiators likely busy for months

Meanwhile, trade experts and analysts have told Reuters it’s too early to assess the outcomes of Trump’s tariff offensive, given the slender results so far – a 90-day pause in US and Chinese duties and a limited trade pact with Britain.

The weekend tariff truce unleashed a surge in global stock prices and may stave off damage from price spikes and critical minerals shortages until August, but it does nothing to address longstanding US complaints about China’s state-dominated, export-driven economic model.

Instead, it sets a tight new deadline for complex negotiations with Beijing that will take place alongside talks with dozens of other countries facing an earlier, July 8 deadline to avoid higher tariffs – stretching the Trump administration’s limited negotiating resources.

Some other early Trump trade deals are expected in the coming weeks, with Switzerland, India and Japan likely to lead the pack. But like the British deal, these are expected to be agreements in principle, with more work to finalize them, and durably shifting supply chains and trade flows can take years to accomplish.

“The jury’s still out, and we won’t be able for some time to look back and say this was a successful strategy,” said Greta Peisch, a former senior trade official under President Joe Biden who is now a partner in the Wiley Rein law firm. “This is round one.”

Kelly Ann Shaw, a senior US official during Trump’s first term who is now with the Akin Gump law firm, said Trump deserved credit for bringing China, the UK and other countries to the negotiating table after years of concerns about US trade deficits.

“Whether you agree or disagree with the tactic, at least Trump is thinking outside the box,” Shaw said. “They’re negotiating some of the deals at record speed, and that is not something that has ever happened before.”

Diplomats with the European Union, a top US trade partner that has drawn Trump’s ire, are still waiting for in-depth negotiations to begin.

And it’s unclear how quickly a substantive agreement with China could be reached.

US and Chinese negotiators issued a rare joint statement after two days of meetings in Switzerland, but did not set dates or a venue to meet again. Bessent has said that could happen in a few weeks. But the negotiations will also include measures to curb trafficking of fentanyl, the source of Trump’s 20% duties on Chinese goods.

China seen as resistant to change

Democrats and Republicans alike have criticized China for producing too much steel, too many solar panels and other goods and then dumping them in Western markets, but those policies haven’t changed despite repeated entreaties.

China had long proven resistant to changing its economy and allowing more US companies to compete for orders, Peisch said. “You’re up against China’s whole theory of its economic policy and how it is operating in the world,” she said.

Robert Kuttner, co-founder of liberal magazine The American Prospect, said Beijing was not about to jettison its mercantilist system, which benefits from state-led capitalism to create or capture technology and product advantages, “and certainly not in 90 days.”

Even if agreements were eventually reached in which Beijing pledged to reform its intellectual property laws or lower barriers to entry by US firms, assessing compliance would be extremely difficult, Peisch added.

Beijing’s failure to fulfill its commitments to vastly increase purchases of US manufactured and farm goods, energy and services in Trump’s first-term “Phase 1” agreement also remains a sore point, said Ryan Majerus, a trade lawyer who worked under both the Trump and Biden administrations and is now a partner at King & Spalding.

“This is a positive development, but the devil is in the details on where the talks go from here,” Majerus said. “We have a lot of longstanding trade concerns with China where the administration will want to see meaningful commitments.”