A Chinese newspaper run by the State Council, or cabinet, warned the market against “simplistic” interpretations of monetary policy moves as easing expectations gathered steam, suggesting China is not about to unleash a huge wave of credit in panic.
Expectations the central bank will ease policy have sharply risen after Premier Li Keqiang said on Friday that the amount of cash that banks must keep as reserves will be reduced “in a timely way”, amid growing economic headwinds whipped up by an increasingly troubled property sector.
“This is a rather simplistic interpretation of macro policy, which could easily lead to misunderstandings,” the Economics Daily said in a commentary on Monday.
China’s monetary policy will be more focused on its continuity and stability while taking into account the government’s short-term and long-term goals, according to the commentary.
Severely indebted property behemoth China Evergrande Group cautioned on Friday that there was no guarantee it would have enough funds to meet debt repayments.
Policy Easing Steps
The yield on China’s 10-year treasury bonds — the most actively traded in the interbank market – fell almost 5 basis points in early trade on Monday on the easing expectations.
Nomura analysts said in a note on Monday that they expect the economy and the property sector in particular to worsen further, and Beijing may have to significantly step up policy easing measures in the spring of 2022 to avert a hard landing.
But the financial daily ruled out the possibility of a flood of stimulus to prop up the economy, saying China would make its policies more targeted to cope with any downward pressure.
It added that coordination between monetary policy, fiscal policy and industrial policies will be stepped up.
After a broad-based cut to the amount of cash banks must hold as reserve in July, the Chinese central bank has since defied market expectations for further policy easing.
Advisers to the government will recommend that authorities set a 2022 economic growth target below the “above 6%” target set for 2021, some of the advisers have said previously.
- Reuters with additional editing by Jim Pollard