Asian markets followed their peers on Wall Street down on Wednesday with investors waiting to see whether the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates further later today, or keep them high for longer than currently planned.
Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Mumbai and Singapore, all dropped, as did the smaller regional markets in Wellington, Manila, Taipei and Bangkok.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.6% with Hong Kong stocks the biggest drag as China left lending rates on hold.
In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 was down 0.7% at 33,023.78 at the close, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell by 0.6% to 17,885.60, and the Shanghai Composite slipped by 0.5% to 3,108.57.
Markets across the world were largely subdued ahead of the Fed rate decision. European stocks were up 0.4% and US equity futures were flat.
Stocks struggled for headway while US Treasury yields held near multi-year highs, as surging oil prices stoked inflation and set the scene for the Federal Reserve to project interest rates staying higher for longer.
Nifty 50 drops 0.6%, Sensex down 0.9%
India’s benchmark indexes fell, led by drags in HDFC Bank, after the country’s largest private lender flagged a hit to its asset quality post its merger with HDFC Ltd.
The Nifty 50 fell 0.64% to 20,002.75 points at 10:00 IST, poised for its worst session in almost a month. The S&P BSE Sensex dropped as much as 0.9% to 66,985.36 points, on track to see its worst day since early August.
The more domestically focused mid-cap and small-cap firms were down 0.1% each.
HDFC Bank slipped as much as 3.3%, emerging as the Nifty 50’s top loser after it said the completed merger with HDFC Ltd would affect some key financial ratios such as its net interest margin and non-performing assets.
That in turn dragged the overall banking index, which dropped about 0.7% and was on track for its biggest intraday drop since late August.
Finance also saw its worst session since August 3, falling as much as 1.2%. Other sectors such as IT and oil and gas added pressure on the benchmark, falling 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.
Among individual stocks, shares of textile-to-oil conglomerate Reliance Industries fell 1.9% on multiple block deals, according to LSE data.
BoE may pause rate hikes after inflation falls
In Europe, sterling came under pressure after data showed Britain’s high inflation rate fell unexpectedly in August, prompting speculation that the Bank of England could pause its historic run of interest rates hikes as soon as Thursday.
Brent crude futures fell 1% and eased off 10-month highs. But at around $93.50 a barrel, prices remain up 30% in three months as Saudi Arabia and Russia reduce output.
Higher energy costs led to a bigger-than-expected spike in Canadian inflation, lifting the loonie on Wednesday and triggering selling in bond markets around the world.
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged at the current range of between 5.25% and 5.5% when it concludes a two-day meeting.
Its policy statement is expected at 1800 GMT, followed by a press conference with Fed chief Jerome Powell.
“While the Fed is not expected to change their policy rate today, the US rate market has been scaling back expectations for rate cuts in 2024 ahead of today’s FOMC meeting that has helped to lift short-term US rates,” MUFG senior currency analyst Lee Hardman said, referring to the Fed’s rate setting body.
Two-year Treasury yields were down 2 basis points in London trade at 5.09%, having risen sharply on Tuesday, when five- and 10-year Treasury yields reached 16-year highs.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were last trading at 4.35%, having hit 4.371% overnight.
Multiple central bank meetings this week
The Fed meeting leads a week jammed with central bank meetings, with policy announcements in Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain and Japan all due later in the week.
Sterling underperformed most other major currencies after the British inflation data, and was last trading 0.25% lower at $1.2365.
UK gilt yields fell sharply as investors slashed bets for a rate hike on Thursday, with two-year yields last down almost 13 bps at 4.86%.
“Although a positive report, when also considering the recent high pay growth numbers, we do not on balance think today’s softer numbers will change tomorrow’s decision – we continue to expect a 25bp hike to 5.50% as our baseline case,” Investec economist Ellie Henderson said.
“But the risks around this have changed and more clearly it calls into question the November rate decision.”
Japanese yen still under pressure
Japan’s yen meanwhile continued to face pressure, prompting a riposte from Japan’s top financial diplomat.
Masato Kanda told reporters that Japanese authorities were always in close communication with US counterparts and that he wouldn’t rule out any options if “excessive moves persist.”
The yen is down 11% on the dollar this year as expectations firm for U.S. rates to stay high and Japanese rates to stay low. The yen hit a 10-month trough of 147.95 to the dollar late last week and was last trading at around 148.
Benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds are at 0.72%, but have been creeping towards the Bank of Japan’s adjusted tolerance for yields 1% either side of zero.
The euro was a touch firmer at $1.069. Commodity exporters’ currencies were firm, with the New Zealand dollar holding modest recent gains at $0.5940 after strong dairy price gains at an overnight auction.
The Aussie held at $0.6464 and analysts said markets might be more sensitive to a dovish surprise from U.S. policymakers.
“We think that the market may already be semi-braced for a hawkish pause,” said DBS strategist Eugene Low in Singapore.
“Short of the Fed delivering beyond what is reasonably expected – that is, hiking rates or removing two cuts per year – we think upside to two-year and three-year dollar rates may be limited.”
Rising yields have kept a lid on gold prices, with spot gold last trading at $1,929 an ounce.
- Reuters with additional editing by Jim Pollard