After Taking Some Big Blows, India's Modi Starts to Hit Back

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has looked like a punch-drunk fighter at the end of a proud career recently, after enduring one of the toughest stretches of his 11 years in office, taking a beating at home and abroad.

His leadership has been deeply tested by a torrent of extraordinary criticism from his supposedly close ally, US President Donald Trump, plus a swag of domestic controversies – an unpopular ceasefire with arch-enemy Pakistan, new scrutiny over his age, opposition charges of vote-rigging in the 2024 general election, his party’s suppression of independent media and alleged rigging of many national entities.

These tests have come to a head before a difficult electoral battle in Bihar, one of India’s poorest but most politically significant states. A defeat in the state assembly vote would not affect Modi’s position in the national parliament, but it would be a big blow to the reputation of a leader who had a vice-like grip on power since he was elected as PM over a decade ago.

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This week, President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imports from India, among the highest of any country in the world, throwing the bilateral relationship into disarray. Yet, until just six months ago, Trump and Modi were exchanging bear hugs and describing each other as close friends.

“The Indo-US relation sort of revolved around the personalities of Donald Trump and Narendra Modi,” New Delhi-based political commentator Arati Jerath said.

“So now, when it’s souring, Modi has no buffer at all. There is a fair amount of disappointment that this strong leader has not been able to show the kind of strength and muscularity that he claimed to have.”

Modi, however, has begun to push back. On Thursday, he said the country was ready to stand by its farmers at any cost, without referring to the tussle with the US on opening up the agricultural and dairy sectors to lower Trump’s tariffs.

“India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, livestock rearers and fishermen,” he said at a public event. “And I am fully aware that I may have to pay a very heavy price personally, but I am prepared for it.”

In a social media graphic posted by his party, Modi is shown taking blows on his back from stones, bricks and a dagger depicted as tariffs, while shielding a farmer with a plough on his shoulder.

That meant some goods could face much higher levies than expected.

Analysts say Modi’s comments indicate that the tariff battle with the US will be front and centre of the campaign in Bihar that is likely to kick off next month. According to a recent survey by the VoteVibe agency, Modi’s National Democratic Alliance will struggle to retain power in the state, largely because of the lack of jobs.

However, VoteVibe founder Amitabh Tiwari said any nationalist backlash against Trump is unlikely to sway voters in what he calls a “hyper-local election” in the economically backward state.

“There is no overarching theme other than unemployment,” Tiwari said.

Visit to China looms

In other signs of pushback against Trump, Modi is planning to visit China in coming weeks, and is likely to meet President Xi Jinping, as well as Russia’s Vladimir Putin, suggesting a potential realignment in relations.

Modi also spoke with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Thursday to discuss the tariff crisis both have faced from the outspoken US leader. The two countries, founding members of the BRICS bloc that Trump has criticised, are the two most affected by the US levies. Russia, China and South Africa are the other founding members.

Modi remains one of the world’s most popular leaders, with an approval rating exceeding 75%, according to data intelligence firm Morning Consult. Yet, even his core Hindu nationalist base was unsettled by a surprise ceasefire with mainly Muslim Pakistan in May, following the most intense military clash between the two old enemies in decades.

The ceasefire sparked controversy at home and abroad. Modi’s government has repeatedly denied Trump’s claims that he leveraged trade negotiations to broker the truce. Trump has since strengthened ties with Pakistan, which publicly thanked him for his role in ending the conflict, further complicating India’s diplomatic narrative.

BJP ‘vote rigging’

At home, the main opposition Congress party has presented what it says is proof of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Election Commission “rigging and stealing” the 2024 general election by adding fake people to voter lists.

“There is a huge criminal fraud being perpetrated on this country by the Election Commission and the party in power”, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi told a press conference on Thursday.

The BJP dismissed the allegations as Congress’s frustration at repeated electoral losses: “When Rahul Gandhi can’t cheat his way to power, he calls it a conspiracy,” it said on X.

The Election Commission asked Gandhi to “stop arriving at absurd conclusions and misleading the citizens of India”.

As Modi approaches his 75th birthday next month, his age has also become a topic of discussion, since other BJP leaders were sidelined after they passed the milestone. The BJP, however, maintains that there is no formal retirement age for its leaders.

All in all, analysts said, Modi faces an onerous task.

“Mr Modi’s brand value is now diminishing very fast, he needs to reinvent himself,” said Rasheed Kidwai, visiting fellow at the Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi.

“The sheen will come off, particularly if he loses the Bihar election. Because in India, elections determine everything.”