Thai PM Faces Pressure as Major Partner Leaves Ruling Coalition

The Thai government led by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has suffered a potentially fatal blow after a major political ally withdrew from the ruling coalition.

The Bhumjaithai Party, the coalition’s second biggest partner, withdrew from the government late on Wednesday after the leak of a phone call between the 38-year-old premier and Cambodia’s influential former leader Hun Sen.

Paetongtarn, the daughter of former PM Thaksin and a relative newcomer to politics, made a public apology on Thursday after the leak of the call, allegedly by Cambodian officials. Analysts said there is pressure on her to resign after just 10 months in power because of an apparent drop in popularity, a stuttering economy and a territorial row with Cambodia that has sparked fears of military clashes.

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The Bhumjaithai Party said it withdrew from the coalition because of damage caused to Thailand’s integrity, sovereignty and its army after an embarrassing leak hours earlier of a phone call between the premier and Cambodia’s influential former leader Hun Sen.

The United Thai Nation, Chart Thai Pattana and Democrat parties announced separate meetings on Thursday to decide their next steps. A decision to withdraw by either the Democrats or UTN would leave Paetongtarn with a minority government and in an unsustainable position.

The premier has not commented on Bhumjaithai’s exit. Paetongtarn was seen entering the government headquarters on Thursday, with police surrounding the complex in preparation for possible protests against her.

Market and baht sink further

Thai stocks fell as much as 2.4% in morning trading. It is reportedly the worst-performing major market in the world this year, having dropped 24%. The baht has been falling against the dollar for close to two months as uncertainty simmered over the government’s fate.

In the leaked call with Hun Sen on June 15, Paetongtarn appeared to kowtow to the veteran former Cambodian leader by referring to him as “uncle.” She was also accused of denigrating a senior Thai military commander – seen as red lines by her critics and allies alike.

The PM was heard pressing Hun Sen for a peaceful resolution to the territorial dispute, and urging him not to listen to “the other side” in Thailand, including an outspoken Thai army general who she said “just wants to look cool”.

She later told reporters that was a negotiation tactic and there were no issues with the military.

Paetongtarn met top security officials on Thursday to discuss the crisis with Cambodia. Flanked by the defence minister, army chief and armed forces commander, she apologised over the leak and called for unity.

“We don’t have time for infighting. We have to protect our sovereignty. The government is ready to support the military in all ways,” she told reporters.

Cambodians join a rally as its border dispute with Thailand heats up (Reuters file image).

However, analysts have said for months that support for Thaksin and his daughter’s government appeared to have eroded.

“Paetongtarn is untenable now,” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, told Reuters.

“The leaked conversation is deeply compromising to her position as prime minister and deeply damaging for Thailand. I think there’s no way she’s going to last.”

Popular opposition party wants fresh poll

If Paetongtarn were to resign, parliament must convene to choose a new prime minister to form the next government, from a pool of only five remaining eligible candidates nominated before the 2023 election.

Another option would be to dissolve parliament and call an election, a move that could favour the opposition People’s Party, the largest force in parliament and the country’s most popular party according to opinion polls.

The People’s Party, the reincarnation of the Move Forward Party that won most votes in the 2023 election but was disbanded last year by a court, said Thailand was paralysed by problems that only a new election could solve.

“The situation yesterday on the leaked phone call is the last straw,” People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut told a press conference.

“I want the prime minister to dissolve parliament. I think the people want a government that can solve problems for the people, a legitimate government that comes from a democratic process.”

Paetongtarn’s administration has been dogged by criticism from opponents about the influence of her divisive tycoon father Thaksin, who holds no official position but often comments on policy and has maintained a high profile since his return from self-exile in 2023.

The turmoil and the army’s assertiveness over the border dispute with Cambodia have again put the spotlight on Thailand’s politically powerful military and its animosity with the Shinawatra family, whose governments it overthrew in 2006 and 2014 coups.

The army on Thursday issued a statement affirming its “commitment to democratic principles” while emphasising Thai unity.

“The chief of army has called upon the Thai people to maintain confidence in the Royal Thai Army’s steadfast commitment to constitutional monarchy and … protecting national sovereignty through established legal frameworks and institutional mechanisms,” it said.

A missile fired by a ‘former friend’

But perhaps the most curious aspect of the current crisis is that the Shinawatra family have been torpedoed by a man once regarded as a close ally.

Hun Sen appears to have turned his back on the Shinawatras in a bid to boost his son’s regime (Reuters file image)

In a report for ThaiPBS, former Nation editor Tulsathit Taptim said on Thursday: “Thailand’s freakish coalition government is apparently coming to an end thanks ironically to a man perceived as one of the best friends of the Thai leader’s family.”

Another commentator, Kavi Chongkittavorn, seemed to agree, saying ties between the Hun and Shinawatra families have been weaponized and used to undermine years of bilateral efforts to achieve peace.

Several have suggested that Hun Sen has been playing up the border dispute to distract citizens’ attention from the criminal dealings of elite families and the country’s economic slump, which could get even worse if it is hit hard by Trump administration tariffs.