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Fed Warning on Inflation, Rates Sends Asia Stocks Down

China’s CSI 300 blue-chip share index falls to lowest in 16 months, other Asian stocks decline around 2%, as Fed indicates it may raise US interest rates in March

China stocks slipped on Tuesday
Investors had recently placed bets on hopes that China would adjust its zero-Covid policy. Photo: Reuters


Asia-Pacific shares tumbled to their lowest in nearly 15 months, short-term US yields rose to 23-month highs and the dollar strengthened on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve chairman signalled plans to steadily tighten policy.

At the same time, rising investor concerns over political tensions between Russia and Ukraine exacerbated worries over tight energy market supply, keeping oil prices elevated at multi-year highs despite some profit-taking.

In its latest policy update on Wednesday, the Fed indicated it is likely to raise US interest rates in March, as has been widely expected, and reaffirmed plans to end its bond purchases that month before launching a significant reduction in its asset holdings.

But in the follow-up press conference, Fed chair Jay Powell warned that inflation remains above the Fed’s long-run goal and supply chain issues may be more persistent than previously thought.

“There was a marked shift in terms of a relatively dovish statement and then a relatively hawkish press conference,” said David Chao, a global market strategist for Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) at Invesco.

“Powell (is) not committing to the size or the frequency of rate hikes and also the timing of the balance sheet reduction,” Chao said.

“I think that buys him a bit of wiggle room as to how quickly and with what velocity he wants to normalise monetary policy in the US.”

Fed funds futures showed traders pricing in as many as five hikes by December, after previously fully pricing for four increases.


China Shares Plummet

China’s CSI 300 blue-chip share index fell on Thursday to its lowest in nearly 16 months, as global concern that the Fed would move aggressively to cap inflation sparked selling by foreign investors.

The CSI 300 fell as much as 1.64% in morning trade to touch its lowest level since September 30, 2020, and the Shanghai Composite index fell as much as 1.47%. Both indexes later trimmed their losses to fall between 0.6% and 0.7%.

Losses were led by tech shares, with an index tracking the computer sector last down down 3.11% and the CSI Info Tech index down 2.46%.

The drop in A-shares came amid a global pullback in equities after Powell warned that inflation remains above the Fed’s long-run goal and supply chain issues may be more persistent than previously thought.

Foreign investors were heavy sellers of Chinese shares on Thursday, with Refinitiv data showing outflows through the Northbound leg of China’s Stock Connect programme nearing 8 billion yuan.

Concerns that the Fed will increasingly prioritise fighting inflation walloped share markets. MSCI’s broad gauge of regional markets outside Japan fell more than 2% on Thursday to its lowest level since November 5, 2020.


US Dollar Strengthens

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index and Australian shares fell more than 2%. In Tokyo, the Nikkei fell more than 2.5%, touching its lowest point since November 26, 2020. In India, the benchmark Sensex index was down close to 2%.

The drop echoed a sharp reversal in US shares overnight. The S&P 500 closed 0.14% lower following Powell’s comments after earlier rising more than 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite finished barely higher, erasing a rise of more than 3.4%.

The policy-sensitive US 2-year yield jumped amid expectations of Fed tightening, rising to a top of 1.1920% in morning trade in Asia, a level last reached in February 2020. The benchmark 10-year yield also ticked up from Wednesday’s close, rising to 1.8566% from 1.846%.

The dollar rose on the back of higher yields, lifting the US dollar index, which measures the greenback against major peers, to 96.604, near five-week highs..

The yen was flat at 114.63, while the euro weakened 0.1% to $1.1225.

“The interesting play seems to be that yield differentials matter again, so we’ve got a decent set-up on dollar-yen. If you look at the yield differential between the 2-year on the US and the Japanese, it’s just shot up,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index in Sydney.

The spread between the US and Japanese 2-year yield widened to 124.22 basis points on Thursday, its highest since late February 2020.


Oil Hovers Around $90

In commodities markets, oil prices eased but remained elevated near $90 per barrel, a level last seen in October 2014, on festering tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

The United States said on Wednesday it had set out a diplomatic path to address sweeping Russian demands in eastern Europe, as Moscow held security talks with Western countries and intensified its military build-up near Ukraine with new drills.

On Thursday, global benchmark Brent crude fell 0.64% on profit taking to $89.38 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 0.6% at $86.83 per barrel.

US officials say they are in talks with major energy-producing countries and companies worldwide over a potential diversion of supplies to Europe if Russia invades Ukraine, although the White House said it faces challenges finding alternative sources of energy supplies.

Spot gold slipped 0.12% to $1,815.88 an ounce.

“When you see gold falling with stocks it’s usually a signal that things aren’t so well, but you can really tie everything back to the Fed raising rates, the dollar screaming higher with the yields, everything else is going the opposite way,” Simpson at City Index said.


  • Reuters and AFP with additional editing by Jim Pollard





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Jim Pollard

Jim Pollard is an Australian journalist based in Thailand since 1999. He worked for News Ltd papers in Sydney, Perth, London and Melbourne before travelling through SE Asia in the late 90s. He was a senior editor at The Nation for 17+ years and has a family in Bangkok.


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