Anutin's BJT Wins a Nationalist Election Victory in Thailand

Caretaker PM Anutin Charvirakul has ridden a wave of nationalistic sentiment to claim a strong election victory in Thailand.

Anutin’s conservative Bhum Jai Thai – a pro-military and pro-monarchy party – had its best electoral performance on Sunday after two outbreaks of border clashes with Cambodia last year.

Voters, particularly in rural areas, were less inclined to support the reformist People’s Party and Pheu Thai, the political group previously dominated by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who is currently in jail. These two parties were the strongest performers in the last election in 2023.

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Bhum Jai Thai won close to 200 seats, according to results from the Election Commission after 90% of ballots were tallied. It is now evaluating partners to form a new coalition government to ensure it has over half of the 500 seats in the lower house of parliament.

Anutin, the son of a construction magnate, has so far managed to avoid fallout over multi-billion-dollar cyberscam networks operating in adjacent countries such as Cambodia and Myanmar.

Boosting the economy may be biggest test

One of his biggest challenges will be tackling the country’s anaemic economic growth.

The People’s Party was expected to win around 115 seats, and Pheu Thai was set to come in third, according to the preliminary results.

Pheu Thai is seen as a potential coalition partner for Anutin, as they were allies until Bhum Jai Thai pulled out over a Cambodia border dispute scandal. But analysts say he may also team up with smaller parties to give BJT a bigger parliamentary buffer.

Anutin, who took office in September, declined to be drawn on Monday on potential coalition talks.

“Everything is still under consideration and in progress. Whatever the case, I have to bring this matter to the party meeting first,” he told reporters. “There are still procedures to follow.”

Pheu Thai had its worst showing since Thaksin founded his political dynasty, after his daughter Paetongtarn was ousted as prime minister over her handling of the Cambodia border dispute.

Thaksin is serving a one-year prison sentence for corruption during his time in office.

Paul Chambers, an associate senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told AFP that Bhum Jai Thai achieved victory by “emphasizing its commitment to nationalism and the king”.

The conservatives also benefitted from the “continuing unpopularity of Pheu Thai” following a leaked phone call in which Paetongtarn referred to Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen as “uncle” and described a Thai military commander as her “opponent”.

The leak sparked public and political backlash and she was later dismissed from office by the constitutional court on an ethics complaint.

The conflict with Cambodia, which killed scores of people and displaced around a million on both sides, was top of mind for voters.

Support for charter reform

“I want the border areas to be peaceful first. Then the government can move on to solve other issues,” said Prae Sangmanee, a 46-year-old seamstress near a Bangkok shopping mall.

“If the borders are secure, the economy should be able to move forward.”

Soon after becoming premier following Paetongtarn’s removal, Anutin authorised the armed forces to take whatever action they saw fit on the border.

Thailand’s military took control of several disputed areas in the latest fighting in December, and a fragile ceasefire remains in place.

The Southeast Asian nation’s political history is replete with military coups, bloody street protests and judicial intervention.

Its constitution, drafted under military rule following the last coup in 2014, gives significant power to institutions appointed by the senate, which is not directly elected.

Around 60% of voters were said to have backed constitutional reform in principle in a referendum on Sunday, albeit with no specific measures on the table.

But Bhum Jai Thai will now be in a position to guide the reform process, and its conservative instincts make radical change less likely.

Investors responded positively to the election result on Monday, lifting the Thai stock exchange by more than 3%, with the baht also strengthening, after Anutin’s clear victory signalled a greater likelihood of policy stability.